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One idea at a time, with the numbers, the honest bear case, and what would prove it wrong.

  • $KSPI·11 Aug 2026·14 min read

    A 7×-earnings super app yielding 8–9%, with a free option on 85 million Turks

    Kaspi.kz earns about $2 billion a year, hands most of it back, and trades like a shrinking bank in a bad neighbourhood. Here is why I think the squeeze is temporary — plus the honest bear case and what would prove me wrong.

    Read the thesis