How it works
Prediction markets let a crowd price the future. Five minutes here and the whole board will read differently.
01What a prediction market is
A prediction market is a market in outcomes. Instead of buying a share in a company, you buy a share in an answer: yes, this will happen, or no, it will not.
Every market asks one question with a verifiable answer — “Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 in December?” — and the price of the YES share is what the people trading it think the chance is.
02What the percentage means
The number on a card is a price and a probability at the same time. A market at 72% YES means YES shares are changing hands at 72¢, which is the crowd’s estimate that the answer will be yes.
If you think the true chance is higher than 72%, YES is cheap. If you think it is lower, NO is cheap at 28¢. That disagreement is what moves the price.
03What a share pays
YES and NO shares always cost between 1¢ and 99¢, and the two always add up to $1.00. When the market resolves, the winning side is worth exactly $1.00 a share and the losing side is worth nothing.
- You buy one YES share at
- $0.72
- The event happens — it settles at
- $1.00
- Your profit
- +$0.28 (39%)
If the event does not happen, that YES share settles at $0 and the 72¢ is gone. Stake only what you can afford to lose.
04How a market resolves
Resolution runs off publicly verifiable information against criteria written before the market opened. When the outcome is confirmed:
- Answer YES — YES shares pay $1.00, NO shares pay $0.00.
- Answer NO — NO shares pay $1.00, YES shares pay $0.00.
Macropredict checks outcomes on a schedule, credits the winning side to your balance and updates your record. You do not have to claim anything.
05Where the money sits
You fund an account in USDC — a dollar-pegged stablecoin — and buy shares with it. Winnings land back in the same balance and can be withdrawn at any point.
You do not have to sell at resolution. A position can be closed at the market price at any time before then, for a profit or a loss against what you paid.
06Why the prices are worth reading
Prediction markets tend to beat polls and pundit panels for one unglamorous reason: a wrong opinion costs money. People who have done the work push the price toward the truth, and people who have not stop pushing fairly quickly.
What comes out is a running probability estimate you can read at a glance — and, if you disagree with it, take the other side of.